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The method at work

Cases

Open processes, not finished monuments.

The case01 — 01
01Rights, territory and the coastal edge

Lafkenche Law

Context
The conflict between the coastal edge, the rights of Indigenous peoples and productive activity, mid-process and with actors who did not share a diagnosis.
Problem
Each actor read the conflict through their own legal and territorial frame. There was no analysis of the whole system that would let them discuss the same object.
Intervention
Systemic analysis of the conflict: the regulatory, institutional and discursive fabric, the actor map, and the trajectories each alternative opened or closed.
Result
An analytical product delivered and used in the real process, not an archived report.

Proof Delivered and working

Explore Atalaya

The full case — thesis, evidence, signals and convergences — on the Atalaya demo dashboard (in Spanish).

There are live engagements that cannot be published yet: cases with an active client are documented when the client authorises it, not before.

How we work

We read the signal, open up possibilities and decide in time

The four stages correspond to a precise point on the diagram: detect the change, set the threshold that forces a review, recognise the fork, and act inside the window where the decision can still alter the outcome.

The core of the method01 — 04
  1. 01

    Locate the signal

    We read the territory, the rules and the actors to tell a relevant change apart from noise.

    On the diagram signal

  2. 02

    Set the threshold

    We agree in advance what would have to happen to revisit a decision, and turn that condition into an alert that fires when it is crossed.

    On the diagram fuzzy threshold

  3. 03

    See the fork

    We make comparable the alternatives, tensions and futures that business as usual does not yet let anyone see.

    On the diagram fork

  4. 04

    Decide inside the window

    We set criteria, owners, alerts and conditions to act or revisit before the point of no return.

    On the diagram decision window

Anticipating is not predicting the scenario: it is deciding while the decision still counts. Past the point of no return, what is left is managing the effect, not choosing it.

The full chain01 — 11

The four stages are four links in a longer chain. Each glyph says what happens to the field: turquoise for what is observed, orange for what crosses into alert and blue for what gets decided.

  1. Signal
  2. Chain
  3. Threshold
  4. Convergence
  5. Fork
  6. Trajectory
  7. Scenario
  8. Implication
  9. Decision
  10. Experiment
  11. Learning and adjustment
  • Observation
  • Alert
  • Decision
The cycle does not close: adjustment returns to the field and opens a new observation.
Diagram of the core of the method: the signal emerges from noise, crosses a fuzzy threshold, forks into a cone of futures and opens a decision window that closes at the point of no return.
The core of the method: where the signal was, when it forked, and how far open the window still was. Every case is this same drawing at work.